In very broad numbers only, based on nothing more than the current price of dry gas and condensate, that's impossible to accurately state within + or - 50% or so.
I only put the ''Better than 7'' in there because it's half way between 5 and 9.
I think 5 or 6 is unlikely but 8,9, or more is probable.
We would still need to know the aggregate field size and it's % C1,C2, relevant to the longer hydrocarbon chains;
But, if you are happy with plus or minus 50% stab, I would say 60 mil. plus or minus 50% (45 to 90 mil ).
This factors in the usual unknown unhedged notional values for o&g over the average production life of similar wells.
That adds 10c to the sp in very general figures.
2 of those 10c I have already factored into the sp based imo as a rough rule of thumb due to the nature of risk and sentiment since ew 1 spud.
Or put another way,,there's roughly an underlying sp value perception of 4 ish cents pre off shore spud..
So there's 14c I can cover...
the closer we get to off shore the higher that underlying 4c will become.
The more info we get regarding ew#1, the more accurate the plus or minus 50% of 10 will become.
That 500k seller at 9c has been there for a while, so he must reckon on 9c easy enough relevant to his buy sell stratagy.
How much of that 10c gets traded into the sp prior to a full assesment of the ew data depends upon all the usual human dynamics.
6.4c seems very undervalued as things stand at the moment tho..
Look fwd to a comprehensive asx report.
cheers
EPR Price at posting:
6.4¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
