the key here is supply vs deficit:
Tungsten is a critical metal with it having a supply risk in the west.
It is critical in manufacturing/mining and the military.
Even astute investors like Warren Buffett were hedging their bets on tungsten in 2012
https://investingnews.com/daily/res...sting/why-big-money-is-attracted-to-tungsten/
We know the supply side of tungsten is currently with china and access to the western world is reducing as identified in 2012:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ciocen...on-tungsten-why-you-should-care/#6550fe6b361f
Then we know that in 2014 with low non-chinese supply, it was difficult to attract funding.
https://investingnews.com/daily/res...more-tungsten-but-projects-cant-find-funding/
In 2015/16 we saw a price crash as global economies were recovering in manufacturing post gfc and chinese supply creating a short term oversupply. So what has changed to reverse the trend of tungsten prices
https://roskill.com/market-report/tungsten/
In summary:
Chinese reduction in production due to 2 reasons:
- pollution
- no longer just a raw material exporter but uses it for it's own manufacturing
China is now a net importer
only 5 mines non Russian and an Non chinese.
endangered metal in the west:
http://www.bgs.ac.uk/mineralsUK/videos/video07.html
Basically it has become a metal required for national interest as it directly affects the western way of life (not my words) as without it manufacturing comes to a standstill.
We also know the US and Eurozone economies are accelarating - protectionist policies will lead to these zones being held to ransom.
Hence, tungsten has to be developed in the world
the key phase for tungsten price is not now but mid 2018 and onwards when any overburden on the market is reduced.
So this is the ideal scenario for any potential near term producer (12 months) - supply squeeze, deficit developing and demand increasing with a critical requirement.
Hece why my eye and money is on sei.
We get the quarry, we give a forecast on mine upgrade and schedule to production - we all become very rich in a short space of time.
classic accumulation going on at the moment - high volume buying low volume selling.
