SEI is starting to look very interesting so I thought I would have a crack at a rough & ready NPV calculation to establish a valuation benchmark for its Mt Carbine Tungsten project only (SEI has Li & Au projects also) I used as my fiscal framework SEI (Formerly CNQ) Feasibility Study produced in 8/2012.and updated it with principally current WO3 price, AUDUSD & royalty rate
A. THE ASSUMPTIONS:
1. Annual Production WO3 = 2600 tns
2. LOM = 10 years
3. WO3 Price is US$320/mtu FOB
4. AUDUSD = 0.80
5. C1 Cash Cost = A$180/mtu FOB
6. Royalty = 3%
7. CTR = 30%
8. CAPEX = A$55m
9. Sustaining capital = 2% pa of CAPEX
10. Project Funding: Debt/Equity = 60%/40% at A$0.05
B. THE RESULTS:
1. EBITDA = A$54m pa
2. PAT = A$34m pa
3. FCF = A$38m pa (FCF = Operating CF - Sustaining Capital)
C. THE VALUATIONS:
1. FCF Valuation = A$38m x 10 times = A$380m OR A$0.38 PFDS (Per fully diluted share)
2. Post tax NPV (8%) = A$203m OR A$0.20 PFDS
The current SEI SP = A$0.028 so FCF Valuation is 14 times and NPV valuation is 7 times SO it looks like SEI is currently undervalued. This excludes any valuation for the Li & Au projects
The problem with Mt Carbine Quarry has been resolved so SEI now has a clear path towards project development & production
Now please note these are my numbers only so treat them with a healthy degree of skepticism and always DYOR before investing.