SEI 0.00% 2.9¢ speciality metals international limited

SEI - a rough & ready NPV calculation

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    SEI is starting to look very interesting so I thought I would have a crack at a rough & ready NPV calculation to establish a valuation benchmark for its Mt Carbine Tungsten project only (SEI has Li & Au projects also) I used as my fiscal framework SEI (Formerly CNQ) Feasibility Study produced in 8/2012.and updated it with principally current WO3 price, AUDUSD & royalty rate
    A. THE ASSUMPTIONS:
    1. Annual Production WO3 = 2600 tns
    2. LOM = 10 years
    3. WO3 Price is US$320/mtu FOB
    4. AUDUSD = 0.80
    5. C1 Cash Cost = A$180/mtu FOB
    6. Royalty = 3%
    7. CTR = 30%
    8. CAPEX = A$55m
    9. Sustaining capital = 2% pa of CAPEX
    10. Project Funding: Debt/Equity = 60%/40% at A$0.05
    B. THE RESULTS:
    1. EBITDA = A$54m pa
    2. PAT = A$34m pa
    3. FCF = A$38m pa (FCF = Operating CF - Sustaining Capital)
    C. THE VALUATIONS:
    1. FCF Valuation = A$38m x 10 times = A$380m OR A$0.38 PFDS (Per fully diluted share)
    2. Post tax NPV (8%) = A$203m OR A$0.20 PFDS

    The current SEI SP = A$0.028 so FCF Valuation is 14 times and NPV valuation is 7  times SO it looks like SEI is currently undervalued. This excludes any valuation for the Li & Au projects

    The problem with Mt Carbine Quarry has been resolved so SEI now has a clear path towards project development & production

    Now please note these are my numbers only so treat them with a healthy degree of skepticism and always DYOR before investing.
    Last edited by mmoore1957: 02/03/18
 
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