Originally posted by topwon
lly posted by topwon
Am I correct when I say you agree that there are huge upsides in future demand of the company's product? Also in the initiatives of this company but have doubts about its management?
One always has to be careful drawing conclusions that are outside the realm of the post as it is presented.
While I appreciate your cautious approach, I didn't draw any conclusions. Just asked two questions!
However to answer your question it would be worth looking at the overall market for the products they offer and where those markets are heading, personally I sense they are seeking niche products in smaller market segments but the concern is their sales channels to get those products to the markets.
I have no concern. More channels than there is product.
The latest quarterly highlights some issues in regards the development stage the company is at, the progress being made and the costs that will have to be carried for some time yet before they come back in to the black.
Their "organics" play is an interesting one as they are seeking to garner an early lead on the organic cow milk sector by funding a vertical integration approach and when matched with the fresh relationship with the current largest organic milk producing co-operative make for some interesting times ahead. Add to this their partial cross-ownership of BnP essentially restricting competing parties from getting an easy start and forcing them down alternative or capital intensive paths of their own. However their own capital demands and time required to actually start producing their intended organic powder products will test many as they are by my estimate over 18 months away from production irrespective of a conditional agreement for supply to one party in China and possibly others in India and Vietnam. Even these elusive heady markets raise some basic questions about scale of processing that is being developed and more importantly the volume of raw milk production that their JV partner, ODFC, can supply. The organic milk market is still minute in this country with a total milk production of less than 1% of the total cows milk production (~9 billion litres pa) putting organic milk somewhere around the sub-80 million litres per annum in today's terms.
ODFA has close to 40m litres of milk and another 20m in conversion in Victoria, with more under proposed contract supply once Wattle's infrastructure is built. Looking further down the line there is also NSW.
If WHA got hold of all that milk it could push out about 8 million kilograms of milk powder (note" many variables to get this calculation but it is a rough rounding of 10 litres = 1 Kg powder using standard Holstein kgms production figures). So lets say 8 million Kg's of powder processed, blended, canned, packaged, labelled and ready for market at $40/kg tin).
Closer to $45/kg tin
That's $320m revenue for the entire Australian production of organic milk. Tough call for WHA. Then to add to their strategy risk is the emerging competitors like ACM (Australian Consolidated Milk), AHF are off trying the organic thing as well and so are a few others, including Bellamy's. Let alone indirect competitors like A2M with a different approach and a clear head start on all the same markets let alone the bigger international players who can drop capital in a new business initiative on organic products if they so wish.
And where will they access the organic milk? Wattle have sole access to all ODFA production.
I will add the cost of producing organic milk at the farm level has a cost multiplier of between 1.24 and 1.75 times the cost of producing normal cows milk so the cost to WHA for the raw ingredients will impact any profit from their organic play.
It will not impact profit. People expect to pay more for organic and the extra cost of producing is factored into the wholesale cost.
I have not included many other contributing factors or risks as it would take pages and too much time.
Please include everything!
It is always easier to articulate in the third person so to see the purpose rather than first person that exposes the agenda.
That aside, my post took about 15 minutes and you may try and counter with one liners but the underlying risk for WHA remains. It's current product suite doesn't support COGS let alone anything underneath that and its organic powder play is too far out to support WHA until then. Which puts it in the capital (i.e. funding) demand arena that as akin to nurturing a baby...highly demanding, expensive and low yielding but with great potential to be unlocked.
Even with the not-so-long ago private placement (at a very severely discounted price of $1.25 from the then VWAP, no matter the period they used) it is not holding up the share price. because at some point this one needs to deliver and the quarterly has shown this has yet to happen and will not happen in the near term.
Even with the potential pending approval from SAMR in China this is for its normal milk powders and even including the conditional Shandong deal it will take time to gear up and have the financials flow back into the company before it starts making a material impact on the value of the company. Hype may well spike the share price but a sustained share price it wont be.
Want more?
Cheers
(another 5 minute post)
