Hated is an understatement

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sevo

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20/03/17

12:51

Post #: 23479629
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Originally posted by pkn ↑

Buy when:

1. The stock is cheap - tick
2. The stock is hated - tick
3. The stock is in an uptrend - nearly

RWD meets the first two criteria.
We are getting there on the third.

As discussed, the valuation on RWD's peers is providing a floor for RWD's share px.
It looks like we have seen the low at $0.29 hit in early Jan.
This is where Ruane bought.

From a price action perspective, key moving averages are converging:

50d = $0.3701
100d = $0.3884
200d = $0.4119.

On prior occasions when:

1. The RWD share price hit a low
2. The 50d moving average bottomed and began RISING
3. AND the 50d broke ABOVE the 100d and 200d moving averages...

...the RWD share price INCREASED by:

a) $0.94 (July 2010 - May 2011) -> over 10 months
b) $0.615 (Aug 2013 - June 2014) -> over 10 months
c) $0.455 (Feb 2015 - June 2015) -> over 5 months.

So with RWD's share price bottoming in early Jan and taking absolute minimums ( a share price increase of $0.455 rise and 5 months duration), suggests:

-> a share price of ~$0.75 by the end of May.

This is purely a technical analysis.

If there is positive news released, then the odds of a jump in the share price by $0.615 - $0.94 between now and Oct (that would be 10 months) would be higher.

This means a share price of potentially $1.25 by Oct ($0.30 low + $0.94).

This is below the Danakali implied valuation (possibly $2.50) from an earlier post.

What the analysis highlights to me is that while there has been little news, the price action suggests we have hit the low.

To kick start the minimum valuation of $0.75 by May, the 50d moving average ($0.37) needs to head above the 200d moving average ($0.4119).

For now, the stock is 1) cheap and 2) hated, and with the stock possibly at the start of an uptrend, the rating of this stock is nearly shifting from a HOLD to a BUY.

Good luck.

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Hated is an understatement

RWD Price at posting: 40.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last 7.0¢		Change -0.010(12.5%)		Mkt cap ! $9.114M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
7.5¢	7.5¢	7.0¢	$33.60K	474.8K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	216107	7.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
7.8¢	100000	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	189708	0.100
1	10000	0.080
0	0	0.000
0	0	0.000
0	0	0.000

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.105	24000	1
0.110	8500	2
0.115	10000	1
0.120	32686	2
0.130	96000	3

Last trade - 14.43pm 27/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

RWD (ASX) Chart

Hated is an understatement

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Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)