Running discussion on SP, page-6077

Thanks for the replies Obe. Understand though that I got in this stock in early December, my average buy-in is 23c. I can see you've been in since the price was literally 10 times lower in Feb last year.

Your research has been great but you've also been wrong at times, talking about something "significant happening in next 3 weeks" that would "ignite the SP" when it was 24c in November, Post #:29249348.

I used to think like that, we have a huge resource and are priced far lower than all these lithium plays with far less, so surely TO any minute now.

Since buying in however I have learnt a great deal more from posters here including Obe and my own research.

Things like lithium is not as in tight shortage as I initially thought, as other players in the market have constantly been upgrading their JORC and are in a better position down the development chain and geographically to take advantage of their large resources.

I still think JORC will lead straight to a TO. Think about this, a 5Mtpa lithium mine is something that has never been done before and if we did do that we'd only need a 50Mt resource to last 10 years. I think some have calculated that based on 2017 and 2018 drills we already have we have approximately that already. Hence a mineable size is already proven for all intents and purposes, especially for a $200 M market cap 50MT should be a bargain. What we don't have are feasibility estimates and any substantial company updates on important things like logistics, power, water source, mining permit (we only have exploration permit). That won't come this year IMO.

The Airguide performance rights that don't start vesting until Dec 2018 were announced less than a month ago upon renewal of that contract. I don't think much has changed in that time. Quoting from the announcement
The vesting period for the performance rights is from 1 December 2018 to expiry on 30 November 2021. It is the Boards view that these milestones are very much aligned with shareholders’ interests and notes the milestone prices are significantly above the current share price of the Company. That doesn't sound like a TO is happening in the next year...
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180516/pdf/43v24vj1xmz7kb.pdf

Where we do agree and why my sentiment is Buy is that this still is THE lithium resource to have IMO as it is intergenerational and production could keep scaling up and up and up, so eventually it will be mined/taken over by a team with the vision and foresight. Probably the Chinese, as @ericson mentions. Their One Belt policy shows their vision, it also shows they have patience and think long term.

Up until now, China has shown it will really only make large investments in near-term/ producing mines. Tinci's $4bil went to old hat producer SQM.

What we can hope for this year is off-take agreements post-JORC. Nigel mentioned off-take in that video.