Running discussion on SP, page-6063

Weary of 8horse in the future... for what, it’s called protecting capital.

This thing was 100% going south on that 3Y, fact. It’s just luck of the draw on how fast you react and if you get in first without hesitation on the sell button or not. To be totally honest ; if I had been awake at the time I would have offloaded if I could have done it at price close to pre-Ann, before re-entering with a percentage once the SP had finished bobbling a few times.

I only woke after a few texts messages had come through , by then it was at 9c and I just thought ‘fark it’ pointless in selling now at his price

So no; I don’t think you need to be weary of anyone that offed after that 3Y.

Bit of taking about why they doubt a TO-
upside down listed

1. Hot money in the market (Klaus) has been leaving.

I reckon his cash flowed over to LCD; Daugher involvement in LCD announced in same day as 3Y....pretty same when the 3Y popped out lasts sept and Klaus’s the TAR news also sprung right out. Klaus doesn’t give a shat about shareholders, he’s loaded and he still holds another 30m...forever searching for the new big thing ; fark mining as far as Klaus is concerned IMO

2.Performance options for Airguide with vesting starting in Dec 2018

This arrangement was announced too long ago , so it’s void ; lots of water under the bridge since then

3.Performance options for JNS cap corp with vesting starting in Dec 2018

Two likely scenarios here; price was being hammered / held down even on the best of news ; ripe for a cheap TO or cheap strategic investment , so JNS appointed to counter it and take price up... why else bother , we have enough cash in the bank and Jorc coming soon which should of had a positive impact on the price in any case...strategic investment of 40-50m also impossible at 15c where it was bobbling around ; think about it.

4.Key one that Scarpa pointed out, AVZ is not just massive but has quite a simple geology so JORC is somewhat a formality. If a takeover were to happen based just on knowledge of what's in the ground then it surely would've happened by now.

Risk adversity is present in EVERY company ; no board would let it all go through and rubber stamped on no bores / just historical data alone ( dependent of course in the value requested ) ; there’s a 20,000m program going through ; I reckon all boards would want that program carried out; the contract, $$$ and framework is in place between AVZ , drill company, lab...I’d certainly be letting that run....but as the massive intercepts clock up ; I reckon my finger would be getting twitchy.

5.Moto Goldmines in the Congo was sold to Randgold after feasibility stage
Hmm; reckon there a bit of a difference. It’s all about supply,demand and surety of supply going forward.... there a few battery suppliers out there that have signed massive contracts for supply when they have zip and there’s non currently available to fulfill those contracts....gold isn’t crital for a new movement ; looks like spod is.

Might be increased demands for gold chains and rings in the future fron lithium investors

This size and homogeneous....well I’m
betting on TO offer within 90 fwiw ...

I reckon Klaus will want north of his Moto price of $470m just for a personal best; he won’t give a shat after that; he’ll just be interested in anything over a personal best IMO