I’ll repy to my own post delivered yesterday after a a very...

I’ll repy to my own post delivered yesterday after a a very boozy lunch courtesy of a smash course in cyber security. One Aussie, two Americans, and a Canadian.

Jeez, no mercy on the drinking front, animal mode was activated by the visiting parties.

What I meant to get across was
the following.

The US inverted treasury curve could mean several things.

The 28 day is paying too much, and the 30y is paying too little.

Many people reading way too much into this, another few months to get a firm hand on this. Not convinced resesssion is at hand yet, but the first scribbles have touched paper.

In several months time if inversion is still occurring some, note, some credit my be given to the nay sayers. Until that time I’m reluctant to give them credit for their call.

Reflecting on the manufacturing figures out of the USA and Germany. I’ll correct my off the cuff figures from my last post.

In Germany 1 in 6 people are directly employed my the auto industry, 18% roughly, 30% are directly affected by the welfare of this industry.

It must be very concerning for them, and others to see the substantial decreace in car sales around the globe.

In 2018 China saw the first drop in GENERAL car sales in over 20 years, at the same they experienced a 168% increase in EV sales.

Tesla was was forecast to lose 2billion in 2018, they ended up with a 300m profit, and yes their credits and interest free loans are due to expire so who knows what 2019 will become for them.

So who really wants to bet against over 300 new EVs due in the next two years? Basics again, new car sales are tanking all around the world, the only growth in car sales is in hybrids and EVs. It is very simple, many want EVs, and they are patiently waiting for the price and range to meet expectations.

The car makers at hand are investing in an inevitable EV future, their only issue is that they have all got the supply issue all wrong. Supply will be a major issue looking tight from 2ndQ 2020, lithium’s upswing should be recognised from mid this year.

For those not really following the supply and demand equation, I suggest you dust off the calculator and start pressing some buttons.

If all these auto makers even come close 50% of target, and home storage goes nuts, which it will, and don’t forget about the billions of other devices that require lithium for their up and go.

FFS, I’ve talked myself into it, I’m topping up tomorrow.

By the way I’m a crazy mutt, and nothing I say should be treated with any sense of advice.

GLT Most.