I agree on the low liquidity (for now). Definitely something you should factor in to all investments.
Calling them over priced depends on your viewpoint. Current arbitrage is negative (to your point
- however if you consider the potential leverage they are very attractive if/when the AVZ heads go up. Depends on your conviction.
This recent round of funding IMO IMO IMO showed that we are playing ball due to the total amount raised and who was involved. Need to shake out the cheapies from those looking at the 10-25% flip before we can move on coupled with (hopefully) the catalysts of 5/10 SS, DFS, Chairman, OT / other finance to build a mine. Look at the past few days of trading. While there is selling, there are also those that are very happy to accumulate and at scale. I thought we would be mid 3's right now.
I'm probably wrong. Frequently am. Bust out a spreadsheet and punch in the head versus oppies gains as a % at various buy in and sell prices. See if it tickles your fancy.