@thunderhead1
Factors for a possible recession are: (1) further deterioration in house prices, (2) Chris Bowen made Treasurer, (3) Retail sales strike, (4) reversal in strong employment growth, (5) slump in AUD/USD exchange rate, (6) greater knock back of investments by FIRB & ACCC, (7) US and China fail to do a trade deal and (8) Collingwood winning the 2019 premiership.
1. highly likely
2. certainty
3. highly likely
4. maybe
5. maybe - depends on interest rates
6. highly likely under Shorten and Bowen
7. highly likely as Trump and Xi both want to be shown as strongman on trade
8. certainty - booked my seats already for last day in September
On balance I think you are right, the question is can Bowen make it a shallow recession with no lasting negative consequences.
@thunderhead1 Factors for a possible recession are: (1) further...
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