roy morgan research, page-9

Yeah, so just to emphasize, that data shows that in the 12 months to June 2015, 9.4% of Australians used FLT to book one or more holidays. By way of comparison (also from Roy Morgan research) in the 12 months to Sept 2013, 8.3% of Australians used FLT for one or more holiday bookings.

Here are the figures for various competitors (from same research):

1		12 mnths to Sept 13	12 mnths to June 15
2	FLT	8.3%	9.4%
3	Wotif	6.1%	5.2%
4	Webjet	4.1%	3.7%
5	Booking.com	3.4%	5.8%
6	Expedia	2.7%	3.2%
7	Lastminute.com	2.1%	1.9%
8	Hotels	1.9%	2.1%
9	Harvey WT	1.8%	1.3%

Does that paint a picture of a business in decline?

And @shortinghero, if you don't believe that's a significant market share, there's a few things you should keep in mind:

(1) about a third of the Australian population can be expected to book one (or more) overseas holidays in any 12 month period. The bulk of FLT's market in leisure travel is overseas holidays. So that would equate to, very roughly, 25% or more (probably more like 30%) of people travelling overseas, choosing to book with FLT.

(2) The next biggest shares are held by pure online agents, which I would suggest are not strictly competing head on with FLT. But even so, if we group all the largest pure internet players (Wotif, Web, Booking and Expedia) we find a share of 16.3% for the 12 months to Sept 13, and a share of 17.9% for the 12 months to June 15. That's an increase in their combined share of 1.6% versus an increase for FLT of 1.1%. Keep in mind here, that these FLT figures ignore other businesses under the FLT umbrella such as Escape Travel. So whilst this indicates a shift to the internet, it's hardly cause for panic. But importantly, pure online players are probably attracting a different kind of customer and a different kind of spend per booking.

(3) Which brings us to the final, and absolutely crucial point. If we look at revenue (TTV) for FY 2015 (in Australia alone), FLT had approx $9.5B, Web had approx $1.2B, Wotif had under $1.5B. I don't have the domestic figures for Expedia and Booking.com. However, based on the relative shares in the above table, and comparing to Wotif and Web, I think we can all get the picture. So does anyone still think it's not a significant share?

(4) But wait, it gets better! You see, not all TTV's are made equal. Because FLT is generally attracting a different kind of traveler, it is also attracting more dollars for each TTV (higher income margin). In fact, if we look at the shares in revenue (rather than TTV), FLT looks even stronger. Which all means that in the higher value added segment, FLT probably rules supreme.

See, I find facts count for so much more than opinions and gut feelings.