I'm happy to see that you are looking at this objectively. If you say "NEVER" as I think you did in a previous post, you run the risk of missing out on future profits. However, it never hurts to question why. I appreciate other points of view on HC as it helps me to question why I am postive or negative on a stock. Sometimes I do some more analysis and question more or change my view - other times the more analysis I do the more confident I become in my position. I thank you for being objective and not just providing an unsubstantiated view and sticking to it like some do.
Not sure of your source of your WA average - but my understanding of many WA producers is that the grade that they produce is less than the 62%Fe for which the price is normally reported which means that they recieve less than the reported price. Whereas the grade of CAP and ROY is expected to be around 69% and will therefore get a premium to the 62% Fe price. Therefore, the profit margin may be greater than the difference between FOB costs of WA v's Braemar.
Good to see ROY have started mining approval process - hopefully shows their faith in the pre-feasability study results which I hope to be released this year and that they are keen to progress to mining.
As for your question about whether the margin is enough to start another project - that will remain a possibility until they actually start. But each time I look at CAP I keep seeing it very positively and will hopefully have my thoughts confirmed on CAP and ROY with the ROY study soon.
MFE Price at posting:
8.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held