EXS 0.00% 26.0¢ exco resources limited

rough figures for a takeover

  1. 235 Posts.
    I've come up with some Very rough figures. This is a very simplistic presentation. See what you think?

    All Numbers approx only. Taken from last quarterly.
    (Or I made them up)
    357 million shares (includes oppies).

    CCP valued at $175m by Xstrata................. $175M

    White Dam earnings $5million/ Month. Page 15
    Remember just produced $24m for the 1/4.
    Conservative 18 months @ $5m ...................$90M

    Cash in bank....................................$36m

    Royalty deal with Copperchem.Page 3
    Over 4 years.......$30m
    Hazel Creek
    From Page 4
    "particularly Hazel Creek,
    where there is good potential
    for further discoveries of a
    scale that may exceed the value
    created to date through the Company?s
    development of the Cloncurry Copper Project"

    (Very)Conservative Value as is Say....$30m

    Other Key Targets over a 2400km2 Tenement Package.

    Page 4
    Including:

    Pumpkin Gully
    Salesbury
    Fisher Creek
    Tanbah Say......$25m

    Joint Venture with Ivanhoe 80% Exco 20% Say.......$1m

    Est Total....$387m

    Now Consider this Ivanhoe has 79m shares(page 15)in Exco.
    Lets say their avg cost/share is 40cents.
    79m x .40 = $31.6m spent.
    worth today 79m x .625 = $49.375m ($17.775m profit)
    Now 357m shares - 79m shares = 278m shares remaining.

    So 278m shares x $1 = $278m
    $278m + $31.6(paid already) = $309.6m

    So for Ivanhoe to Bid $1/share it would only cost $309.6m in Total.
    They have already paid $31.6m(outlay)on their 79m shares.
    So for an extra $278m they take the whole Company. Then they could sell CCP to Xstrata for $175m. This leaves them with a cost of $103mill to take the rest of the Company.

    Seems cheap. What have i got wrong?????????

    Remember all figures taken from the last quarterly or I have made them up. I am prepared for you to disagree with any of my figures and encourage feedback on my numbers.
    $1 would be nice.

    Hermie........Fire Away.

 
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