I've come up with some Very rough figures. This is a very simplistic presentation. See what you think?
All Numbers approx only. Taken from last quarterly. (Or I made them up) 357 million shares (includes oppies).
CCP valued at $175m by Xstrata................. $175M
White Dam earnings $5million/ Month. Page 15 Remember just produced $24m for the 1/4. Conservative 18 months @ $5m ...................$90M
Cash in bank....................................$36m
Royalty deal with Copperchem.Page 3 Over 4 years.......$30m Hazel Creek From Page 4 "particularly Hazel Creek, where there is good potential for further discoveries of a scale that may exceed the value created to date through the Company?s development of the Cloncurry Copper Project"
(Very)Conservative Value as is Say....$30m
Other Key Targets over a 2400km2 Tenement Package.
Page 4 Including:
Pumpkin Gully Salesbury Fisher Creek Tanbah Say......$25m
Joint Venture with Ivanhoe 80% Exco 20% Say.......$1m
Est Total....$387m
Now Consider this Ivanhoe has 79m shares(page 15)in Exco. Lets say their avg cost/share is 40cents. 79m x .40 = $31.6m spent. worth today 79m x .625 = $49.375m ($17.775m profit) Now 357m shares - 79m shares = 278m shares remaining.
So 278m shares x $1 = $278m $278m + $31.6(paid already) = $309.6m
So for Ivanhoe to Bid $1/share it would only cost $309.6m in Total. They have already paid $31.6m(outlay)on their 79m shares. So for an extra $278m they take the whole Company. Then they could sell CCP to Xstrata for $175m. This leaves them with a cost of $103mill to take the rest of the Company.
Seems cheap. What have i got wrong?????????
Remember all figures taken from the last quarterly or I have made them up. I am prepared for you to disagree with any of my figures and encourage feedback on my numbers. $1 would be nice.
Hermie........Fire Away.
EXS Price at posting:
62.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held