We borrow $140 mill @ 20%, if constructed in 18 months we then owe more than $42million extra at first gold pour. If this is delayed to 24 months....at least $56 million. (these interest amounts weren't compounded).
The market will discount us big time according to all the risk involved in repaying the debt.
The net cash surplus given by atv in many of its announcements DOES NOT take into account any incurred interest.
POG @ $1700/oz gives cash surplus of $337 million. Lets say 42 million interest from construction, $180 debt now. The mine will net $92mill/year, take around 2yrs 4 months to pay back whilst incurring an additional $40mill debt.
So when taking debt into account the cash surplus goes from $337mill to $337-$82 = $250 mill, and the payback went from 18months to 28 months.... OUCH
cash surplus has decreases by 25% and repayment period has increased substantially. Therefore the NPV given by atv needs to be decreased by more than 30%.... OUCH
from $206mill to $140mill.....
The market WILL discount according to risk of payback time due to construction/mining/processing risk. I have NOT included any of the risks....
ATV Price at posting:
3.3¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
