rival bidder?

I was staggered to read the meagre update from BOW yesterday. I find it inconceivable that the BOW directors would "capitulate" as they have.

(I know their CEO and RP from my holding a direct interest in two of the BOW oil permits (Rookwood + Stratton). By the way, the chance of a return on my investment in these permits under Shell ownership is just about diddly squat.)

The length of time it has taken for the 4c upgraded offer suggests that in that period BOW have fully acquainted BG and others with all the facts regarding their key tenements. They have known for some time that no further due diligence would be possible by third parties. Thus the third parties have all the data they need to make a counter bid.

The SP antics of BOW in the 3 months or more before the bid should be closely examined. Particularly so the short side. This set up a 60 to 75% premium claim. What a joke.

I am firmly of the view that BOW had to get the "For Sale" flag up the mast for all to see. This they have now done and I think that BOW think that another bidder (or two) will pop out soon. Even the clauses to protect Shell tend to indicate that another bidder is expected.

Further the BOW oil interests have value. And they have >$70m in cash . I would have thought that BOW would have held onto their oil and most of their cash (probably $50m by Jan 2012)considering the "low bid" from Shell. This would have allowed them to do a Dart Energy type deal.

All this suggests to me that BOW expect a far better deal coming in from third parties.

The only circumstance that would prevent one of the Curtis Island players making a rival bid, is that they themselves (Shell + BG or STO etc.) are considering merging their LNG plants in one huge one.

If no new bid arrives BOW might sweeten the deal for shareholders by doing a capital return or special dividend, but would need to match their Shell SIA.