rfc ambrian set 38c price target on gbp (11c) , page-2

p95 onwards.

Valuation
We estimate that the current fair value of Global’s share price is A¢38.0 (21.5p), which is over 3x higher than its A¢11.5 (6.25p) price on 26 February 2014. In our ‘success’ scenario we estimate that Global’s shares could be worth A¢69 (39p) by end-2014, while in our ‘failure’ scenario we
estimate they could be worth A¢21 (12p), still well above today’s share price. We outline our key assumptions behind these estimates below. As Global does not yet have fully mature prospects, we do not believe that it is meaningful to calculate an EV/net risked 2P prospective resource
multiple.

Key Assumptions
For our Current Fair Value Estimate
? We have conservatively valued Global Petroleum’s interest in Licence EL 0029 using the average Walvis Basin farm-in multiple over the last couple of years of US$5,700/km2.
? We have conservatively ascribed no value to Global’s Juan de Nova Est licence as it is currently being renewed. Nor have we ascribed any value for its Italian licence applications.
? We have assumed that 2014 G&A and exploration expenditure is A$4m. For our ‘Success’ Scenario Value Estimate All assumptions are the same as above except:
? We assume that Global farms out Licence 0029 in 2014 on the same valuation level as Pancontinental achieved with Tullow (US$11,564/km2) in September 2013.

For our ‘Failure’ Scenario Value Estimate
All assumptions are the same as current fair value except:
? We assume that Global farms out Licence 0029 in 2014 on the same valuation level as Eco Atlantic achieved with Azimuth (US$2,500/km2) in April 2012.