I have included my estimated multiples (dollar of cash returned for dollar invested on PDLs) updated to include the most recent results:
The cumulative lifetime multiple (return) on PDLs has continued to climb. If asset purchases pick up a lot in the next year this will probably drop as a result of reweighting toward younger debts. A break down in the cash receipts on PDLs (again estimates but estimates on a consistent basis) from assets bought in the last year, 1-2 yrs, 2-3yrs and 3+yrs are shown on the other lines. This is the more important information in my mind on this chart. More cash appears to be being extracted per dollar invested in the later years than previously, but there is also a negative trend in the early years suggesting they are collecting cash slower on new purchases. Obviously time costs money, so while it's good the back books appears to be yielding, personally, I'd like to see cash coming in earlier. Taking over two years (based on my estimated calculations using the investor presso's etc. and will not be perfect) to get the initial investment back is longer than I would like to see and is slower than some of their competitors who get that 1x multiple earlier in the piece.
The cash flows over all were lower than I had estimated in my own valuation model (and my model has a lower share price than the current price at a 10% discount rate). Most of this was lower PDLs cash inflows than I expected, mainly driven by the lower return than I expected on assets acquired between 1-2 years ago (green line in the graph shows the drop I wasn't expecting). Note that the lines on my graph (other than cumulative multiple which is just a longer term reference point) are on a per dollar invested basis so the actual size of investment in those years, which will change, shouldn't impact the return/$.
Collection services cash inflows were broadly on the mark of where I was expecting. The story in this part of the business seems a positive one.
Costs came in a little bit under what I had estimated as well, which on a positive note suggests to me, compared to longer term trends, rationalization and productivity initiatives are having some positive impacts. If the PDL part of the business can be improved then this along with the collections services business I believe will give a footing for value increases. Personally , feel free to disagree, I still think the PDL segment is weighing on the valuation.
It will be interesting to see what the share price does over the next week, especially as some others put out their results as well. I suspect some were just looking for more in CLH's result than was there....I can understand the share price in a $1.10-1.40 range but still struggle personally with much more than that without clear signs of more upside. PNC was up 6%+ today and they report tomorrow, so that one will be interesting as well.
Some conjecture, estimates and thoughts, DYOR
CLH Price at posting:
$1.31 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held