Coppertop Great debate:
You see I disagree and maybe my insight might add to our collective understanding or you could persuade me otherwise.
I agree that there are a few investments that dont fit. I am not sure where Clover fits and I think that if it is such a good thing it should be built its just a distraction IMO. Yet beyond that - BKI - I think fits the mould as its just a LIC. Small stake relative. BKW - well that without its cross holding I would not want to invest in it. Cycles are too deep and its like a steel mill - One day its good but mostly its average to bad. Its a great investment because of its protection and ability to keep paying the dividend and keep investing deep into the cycle. When we come out of this one I reckon they will have cemented their position a few competitors will have gone and they would have made strategic but much smaller niche acquisitions. Really good business with diversity being developed - the property division a real asset IMO. Without the cross-holding they would not have the resources to behave as they do. Then we get to API - well I really dont know about this one recovering from a few bad years - I think its good but the jury is out. NHC - well I think it is the star - I have been involved in pyrolysis and the processes - you dont actually only have to use coal as i remember you can use any carbon based product and at times it was tyre rubber and even fruit and veg waste but it complicates things. Imagine turning coal into a barrel of oil. seeing as we struggle with refining they could just take the process one step further and they could end up refining as well. Read the story around Sasol and you get an interesting picture - not the same process but the same outcomes. Then they need a pile of that cash to develop the process further. They run a very tight ship and make money have their own port etc etc. Really good story in my opinion. TPG - a great investment one I missed I loaded up at around 30c and sold as it climbed only to be left with too few at $1.60. Yes there are more and the Copper one being the next largest I think. all great investments. what this company allows me to do is have a cheap entry into what is a LIC but it has controlling or very influential stakes. So of all of them only clover does not add up for me.
Perpetual IMO should look to their own performance which IMO is a shocker before worrying about the SOL/ BKW structure. I too hold both but recently my model has been telling me that there is a 4% advantage in owning SOL - which could turnaround if Building picks up. I have been buying more of SOL these days but I see Perpetual; virtually level in both. I think their push is opportunistic to try and get a 30% gain by way of unbundling and then add that to what has been a poor performance by them IMO.
If they get their way I would take a lot off the table as I think the sum of parts is greater than individual. i think it allows them to balance risk and opportunity.
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