SEA 1.25% 19.8¢ sundance energy australia limited

results announcement, page-5

  1. 6,312 Posts.
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    Got nothing but admiration for that effort because I know the time involved and courage for putting it up. There are those that over simplify forward projections ... but I like you believe in the science. Fantastic work

    As I said, I used to do this on smaller companies (i.e. less wells to track and project). Gives the confidence to take those "learnings" and then apply it "to scale" for the larger programs and for me that gives the investor an ability to self-validate what the doing is reporting and guiding to into the future.

    I think our models have converged again ...
    you well level model has estimated production of 6MMBoE and ~$150M EBITDAX on 24 (? or 22 = 4+6+6+6) wells,
    whereas my averaged corp level model has estimated production of 5.7MMBoE and ~$165M on 19 (4+5+6+5) wells.

    Differences in estimates would be mostly due to my choice of the "middle" of the period being the TIL'ed date and then some variation wrt to product mix and pricing.

    I agree with VH that the chosen b, d values are reasonable and probably close to what is used.

    If only SEA would come out and advise of the plan, put out guidance for the full year 2019 with supporting details (as you and I have done) to give the punters some level of confidence as to how the business is performing now and how it will finish 2019 and WHY they have top tier peer comparison metrics.

    There are still a few here that will my posts from 2+ years ago   ....  forward production modeling + balance sheet kept me out of SEA back then   .... and forward production modeling (and then everything that works of off that) and their recapitalization put me into the stock last Qtr.

    Again WELL DONE @tt2000. This is when HC is at its most valuable IMO.

 
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