results announcement, page-4

good work TT !

I would only add:

1. when the roll over the debt, the banks will require "another" hedge program
2. your "b" exponent looks abt right - but one thing that does occur is that the GOR does chg over the life of every shale well......I don't think its possible to accurately model this except on a well by well basis, and requires data on choke size and pressures (Cmon also posted a great link) ......your approach is as good as any! (see enno peters site for some data)
3. you have "hit the nail" on the head - the co has enough flex room in terms of wells/qtr vs op c/flows ......the issue is fwd oil price versus capex essentially.
4. I concur re value, and suspect the only reasons the stock is going up is bal sheet concerns from bigger investors (see ATS), any dilution (40-50m in toto) would still give PV10 at fwd curve circa 65-80c .....

interesting they have put a hedge fund punter on the Board .........private equity has liked the E&P space historically ....I suspect (given credit spreads) that its more difficult for them in this space currently.

rgds
V_H