Hi Madamswer
Thanks for providing such a comprehensive answer and understand your logic, but as you know past performance does not guarantee future performance, so though I do look as the past and that helps determine the quality of the company, I also try and do my best to consider what the market conditions of the future look like relative to the past. Though I do not expect the DLX to loose market share or even see there margins squeezed, I do however see a slow down in demand for some of there core profitable products and the current leading market share does in fact limit there chance of further growth unless they do decide to lower the margins to gain further share, I do not expect this from Dulux. So my model provide a average intrinsic value growth of the next two year of about 1% and avg EPS growth of about 2%.
Which are both below my 3 yr target for average growth and though I agree it is hard to find high quality companies out there for fair value with a greater that 6-8% average growth per year, I think for me NCK, once it price settles back to about $5.00 would be a good replacement if I can sell DLX for about $7.00.
In relation to your comment re Captial Gaims Tax, unless in five years your tax bracket will be much lower not sure why that would be a so important in term of your timing.
Before I build my model to trigger when to sell, I used to hold on to stocks and never no when to sell them and many times I would find I left a lot of money on the table so to speak, so I know try and take profit when the model suggest growth has slowed down significantly and there is a strong Captial Gain which could have downside risk over a three year horizon. Just my approuch at the moment.
By the way I do own FLT, I have not been happy with its SP performance relative to WEB and happy to compare some notes on this it is a difficult one for me, I will be under water if I sell now, so I hold for now but this is an example of quality company in which the market conditions that made it successful in the past may not be the same going forward and there ability to react quickly enough and with the right strategy is a major concern for me.
Thanks once again for your time.
DLX Price at posting:
$6.51 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held