KZL 0.00% 12.0¢ kagara ltd

I'm with Mayo. I think it is a little bit disappointing and...

  1. 1,686 Posts.
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    I'm with Mayo. I think it is a little bit disappointing and frustrating. That being said though I think you have to consider why they might be dragging their heels a bit on the announcement.

    I'll do a quick balanced scorecard and see if the answers present itself using positives and negative scale values.

    1. Resource upgrade - due now let's say this is worth - 9/10

    2. Financial results - Feb 15 - bound to show a poor result with maybe a 4 mill+ EBIDTA gain after taking into account Q1, I'd say this is worth -9 but let's assume that 50% of this negativity is already priced in - -4.5/-10

    3. Commodity price increases - good but offset with the negative values associated with a rising AUD. Hedging is also probably more negative than positive now, so let's say this is neutral 0/0.

    4. Lounge Lizard getting closer - positive but still distant in the mind of day traders. 3/10

    So, 12/20 for and -4.5/-10 against.

    or 60%+ favourable, 45%- negative.

    Now, people being people, negative things tend to stick in our minds. I bet that Geoff is looking at the same situation telling his staff to release the upgrade results with the quarterly, so we are left with a lasting net positive impression of 15%, which can be built on as either Lounge Lizard closes in or as the AUD falls and commodity prices rise. If they had released the upgrade results on time, it's possible the shine would fade by the time the quarterly results came out and investors are left with a neutral to negative outlook.

    On the other side of course the delays could be explained by underestimating the task to quantify the numbers to JORC standard or that new drilling results added to the grades and resource estimates.

    Either I am not fussed. I did a bit selling into this run up to 38c. Happy to sit script bought higher or buy more lower. It's a buy sub 34. A sell above. Yatchy is spot on.
 
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