RSG (ASX) Resolute to sell Ravenswood

"This is only in my opinion, not offered or to be taken as financial advice, DYOR"

Originally posted by eshmun: ↑

The article refers to cashed up local gold miners (see quote below)

"The scale of the forecast output at Ravenswood, together with its comparatively long life, means it is likely to appeal to a host of cashed-up local gold miners hunting for assets that will grow their output and extend their forecast operating lives."

but despite the rampant valuations of some of these companies the cash they hold is relatively modest.

RMS is not a contender without going into significant debt IMO.

What are the cash positions of the other locals?

At Sept 2018

NST $277 million No debt

SBM $343 million No debt

RRL $209 million No debt

EVN $78 million Net debt

RSG are not in the habit of publishing NPVs with their feasibilty studies but the article is claiming an NPV of $500 million. I don't know if this figure is before or after tax or where it comes from.

Even at half the quoted NPV none of the above companies are currently in much of a position to be offering cash without straining their balance sheets.

That's the problem with some of these bloated companies, they are supposed to be big cash generators but they can't even afford to buy modest projects with the cash on their balance sheets.

NST raised cash to acquire Pogo. I suppose that is an option for some but does Ravenswood have the knock out (sex appeal) metrics to allow the banksters to extract more of "other people's money" to fund the purchase price, I doubt it very much. The Pogo and South Kalgoorlie acquistions where knock out blows if you measure them as exercises in rehypothigating value through the market. Pogo, an asset bought in an arms length cash transaction is immediately rehypothicated by the market at about 3 times its purchase value......wow. Then NST offer about one sixth of the implied market value for one of its own assets to its JV partner to buy the remaining 49%, stating it to be fair value.........wow. Most of these mid-tier Australian gold companies have bubble valuations for the assets they own. None seem to have Tier-One gold mines as measured by Barrick Gold's definition, but some don't mind carrying Tier-One valuations.

I think the most likely contenders are SBM as their mine life visibility is only 5 years at Gwalia until the GME project is proved feasible. Then possibly RRL as Ravenswood sort of suits their skill set and style.

Honestly though, I think the Australian gold sector is too weak to be splashing hundreds of millions in cash around for acquistions, so we either accept a very low ball offer or the we get gouged by the banksters in a spin off.

I prefer the fire sale option.

Now that the cat is out of the bag the most important thing is to get on with it and get this project off the books.

Also, it's a pretty odd way to disclose the company's intentions to the market in an article with an attempted postive spin, but it probably did less harm than making a direct announcement to the stock exchange.

Company needs to deliver on Syama in the next 6 months as promised.

JW's credibility now hinges on his words about the progress of Syama. You either beilive him or you don't. Esh

Expand

Esh, not just credibility. His bank balance! If RSG doesn't deliver in the next 6 months it will be disastrous for JW.

From Appendix 3Y dated 26 of October 2018

4,500,000 fully paid ordinary shares
564,000 Performance Rights vesting 30 June 2019
600,000 Performance Rights vesting 30 June 2019
1,000,000 Performance Rights vesting 30 June 2020
587,500 Performance Rights vesting 30 June 2020
277,559 Performance Rights vesting 30 June 2021

"This is only in my opinion, not offered or to be taken as financial advice, DYOR"

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(20min delay)
Last 43.3¢		Change 0.018(4.22%)		Mkt cap ! $1.543B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
42.5¢	44.5¢	42.0¢	$6.913M	15.88M

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