T, absolutely agree on that. I guess I'm always cautious particularly when people start throwing around high end "industry metrics" as a benchmark for their mostly undeveloped pastures. I know the Dr Alan Stein story well.....some pretty decent numbers coming out of their current campaign (have been a part of Calima since it's inception, and will most likely follow him into his next venture post sale), he's setting up a nice little "real estate" play, as is RLE imo. Thing is you can't ever expect to get full value in these deals as the buyer wants a decent amount of meat on the bone, plus cushioning for market gyrations. What alot fail to understand is that moving from exploration to development and production stage requires huge amounts of capital (massive dilution) and little companies such as RLE and CE1 aren't exactly in as strong a position, as say Origin was, when negotiating a transaction. So accepting what may look like a very lowball offer, is infact quite often a huge win and hence why it's a well worn path for some of the directors/managers as you say.....take AWE's Waitsia for example. BTW, who exactly would be willing to pay the "$2 billion" valuation? A bigger australian UCG company? My point was it's a hype piece generated to do exactly what's it's doing, build momentum and FOMO amongst mostly unwary investors (seriously, read some of the pearls of wisdom over there.......it's cringe worthy). If anything it far more relates to RLE, maybe a granny smith vs a golden delicious but at least it's comparing apples to apples, personally though I'd be turning the dial down by at 50% and there's a hell of a lot of water to flow under the bridge before we reach that point.
(Interesting to note that at a similar time late last year and with the same MC valuation, AS was able to raise $25mill at a premium....)
RLE Price at posting:
9.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held