I agree with you that scenario 1 is most likely. Becoming the...

I agree with you that scenario 1 is most likely.
Becoming the majority holder in AYC doesn't make sense to me considering the sale of Maldon.
They would have been better off taking over AYC outright instead of selling them Maldon.
Definitely looks like management want to take the company in a new direction (back door listing).

Remember the AYC securities are voluntarily escrowed until the 25th of December.
But your right, voting will likely be needed so a deal could well be done before November.
With the 77m options expiring 11/12/15 we could also see a run up past 2c pretty soon...
Ian Gandel ( director of Abbotsleigh) would surely want those options converted before anything happens you would think?

On one hand 2c is quite a premium to the current price, but with the liquidity you'd be hard pressed to acquire many shares at current prices. So being undervalued on a net asset basis he would likely want to convert them?

If he doesn't convert them our shares will be worth considerably more, so its a win either way