I don't think the shareholdings of the punters will make much...

I don't think the shareholdings of the punters will make much difference on this front regardless of what price they brought at. SKE has a substantial amount of it's share registry tied up with institutional holders holding between 3-7%. I'd be very surprised if they had not consulted with them to ensure they were on side before they rebuffed PRG so unless 3 or 4 of them have changed their mind I wouldn't see much changing without a significant uplift to the offer.