I'll do some maths over the weekend, but I feel that the Australian retail section will outperform estimates. US retail is a bit of a trap, as forecasts are for the full year and it will take some time to transition - i.e Opex per mwh will be higher for the half than the 2018 forecast. I'm expecting around a $1 net margin for the half ($5 gross, $4 opex) increasing over the year as the business scales.
The big question for me is what they plan to do with their cash - must be an acquisition on the cards at some point, given that the only debt relates to Neerabup. In addition, if they hit forecast numbers - what will happen with the divi? An increase there will greatly help the SP.
All in all, I see the company heading toward $2 if they hit their forecast for the FY.
EPW Price at posting:
$1.44 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
