Ok, so Wall Street tanked, along with commodity markets, and pain was inflicted across the board.
I'm sanguine; I've see this game play out before, and have ridden the downs only to see AVL come back stronger for longer. In fact, as I type these words, the Dow 30 is up over 324 points and commodities are staging a strong come back.
The fact is, no wants a trade war, and while everyone is talking tough as they jockey for a psychological edge, deals will be done. Trump is the man who convinced little rocket man to give up his nukes. Does anyone really believe the Chinese and Yanks are going to shoot themselves in the foot?
As for Turkey, the fall-out can, and will be contained. The markets are rigged in so far as the Fed (and other Central Banks) have displayed a willingness to pump liquidity into the system to prop up financial instruments. Another sugar rush will see the same kind of exuberance in commodity markets we saw post GFC. IMO IMO IMO IMO (hat tip to @Scarpa)
There is another matter, which is a real game changer as far as we are concerned. The following Tweet highlights it perfectly. Unlike mainstream commodities which are de-facto financial instruments, vanadium is a real physical market. It's price depends on real demand and supply issues, not some trader in NYC or London trading pips on some securitised contract.
In a note BMO Capital Markets, an investment bank, said the price movement in copper and other base metals “seems to be driven by financial markets, and lack fundamental basis”:
“We simply have to look to commodities set by the physical market (chrome, vanadium, tungsten, steel rebar) to find price robustness reflecting underlying demand that seems to be okay."
