TVN 8.33% 5.2¢ tivan limited

Actually that exactly justifies the comments on coal...

  1. 5,334 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 581
    Actually that exactly justifies the comments on coal quality.

    Nobody here said (that I saw) that this coal was worthless or wouldn't find a market - just that it's of poor quality and won't get $120/t.

    Chris has confirmed that. When he refers to 'peers' he is not referring to Hunnu's high-quality projects but their Unst Khudag project, and Peabody's adjacent project (which somebody said has been stopped? Anyone confirm?)

    These are all projects of similarly low-quality coal which suffer a huge discount to the benchmark thermal coal prices. They are all drilling in a poor quality area, so they are all finding the same stuff. Look at all those air-dried values in the quarterly - 3995 kcal, 4916, 4002... they are all a long, long way from the Newcastle benchmark which is 6800 kcal air-dried.

    You didn't ask him to compare this coal with Queensland coals, so he didn't. He compared them with what is nextdoor which is, of course, similar stuff.

    Will there be a viable project? Probably. As he said, $14/t shipping, $10-20 mining = $24 to $34 opex costs. If they can get $35-40/t for it they will be making a similar or better margin to CCC or other domestic coal producers - just without the export coal that CCC has. And no doubt there is a LOT of coal here given those seam intersections. More than 100Mt for sure.

    But the people using the Qdaf figure as a basis for coal quality comparisons are, frankly, wrong, and Chris's e-mail has confirmed that by pointing to the comparison table in the quarterly and saying TVN's coal is of comparable quality. This coal is D-grade thermal coal that will get domestic prices. Which is all the so-called 'downrampers' were ever saying.

    Excellent that the CEO replied so quickly and comprehensively though. Wish I'd get a reply like that from the guys I e-mailed the other day.
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add TVN (ASX) to my watchlist
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.