the takeover will take as long as awe wants it to. it has no impact on the adi capacity to fund wells nor the capacity to drill wells as they are well funded for any events coming up
i doubt awe will want to look unprofessional and make it a messy 6 month takeover. but what advise and strategy awe is given by macQ in this takeover, and how its played until a reasonable offer is placed is speculation..
if in your view the upcoming cap raising that aut needs to undertake has no impact on the aut sp then thats brilliant oilgoldgas. lets hope so.. i dont agree, i recall the adi one certainly saw the sp drop away as the mini gfc hit a short while later..
even though you view the takeover as garbage, imho awe sees it different, and i think it has been the sole catalyst for the increase in the sp of eka and aut during a pretty big fall through out the worlds exchanges these past weeks, but despite the rise that the awe bid has given the eka and aut share, aut has not as yet achieved anything like the drive that eka has thus far which is pretty much on a 2 : 1 parity with adi. the buying there is a standout!
everyone views the aut as pretty undervalued, but its interesting that the broker reports with $2 upside has had no impact on the appetite for the share and it did not rise to a $1 short term level thus far..
i am curious about aut not releasing that the turnbull 3 well had spudded on the 28th may. and that the frac on turnbull 1 has been in full swing for at least a week that i am aware of.. its information i think that could have some great sp impact. i hope they do release some news soon on that front, as imho the longhorn acreages will ultimately deliver some significant upside to the aut share.. them not releasing critical data like that added to my nervousness on the aut share..
with the cap raising, one strategy could be to announce the rancho grande is flowing today, then announce the turnbull 3 spud and the turnbull 1 frac. and if your needing capital then put your share into a trading halt and rally some cash b4 the turnbull 1 well is put on production.. that timing could reduce the impact of the dilution with some significant positive news on the longhorn acreages
another strategy is run your cash reserves down and go for a cap raising post the three turnbulls and the either pre or post the reserves estimates results becoming public.. and hope for a big increase in the sp on the longhorn and drive the cap raising into that value..
there will be a cash spend requirement by the jvp in the very near term on the AMI acreages according to my calculations, either that or they will lose some significant acreages very soon.. in about a month by my calculations.. imho the jvp must be close to deciding and announcing something on that..
there will be further acreages needing wells in the ami and in the very near term, so how long aut plan on holding before raising capital and what strategy they adopt will be interesting to me..
as i say, i know plenty of good people in the aut share, and i hope they get that share running hard to $1.. maybe today will see some great action on the share.. lets hope so.. for me i am sitting it out until the future of aut and its capital is clear to me.. happy to jump in way later..
ADI Price at posting:
41.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held