It's a tricky call to make.The next 6 months should see a...

It's a tricky call to make.

The next 6 months should see a continued campaign in S/L and ADI & EKA have the higher per share gearing to that.

Beyond that, AUT will have the additional contribution from drilling Longhorn and Ipanema, but will need to raise capital for that. They have said so.

If the Longhorn & Ipanema drilling is brought forward, so will be the capital raising. It should be moderate but it depends on the scale of drilling planned. However, the market seems to cane companies for daring to raise capital.

Then, on top of that, ADI SP should command a bidder's premium.

The market wasn't ready to value the JVP's near fair value before the bid by AWE and the initial offer was below Hartley's short-term target for ADI. Patterson's value of AUT was comparable to the new value implied by the target statement value with the principal difference seemingly being the 35% risk discount used by Patterson, which they said they would probably reduce after the mid-year reserves re-appraisal following the completion of the farm-out wells.

It is possible that we could see an initial bubble in the other JVP prices as money transfers into them from ADI but then a stalling or even a fall in prices until the new production results start to flow in.

The joker in the hand that I am holding is the UK emergency budget and the threat to double CGT. If the government proceeds along the idiot path threatened, and trod before, but abandoned (don't those plonkers do any research before they open their political mouths?), comparing after budget to before, I might be 1/3rd better off triggering the gain before.

The only amount that's important is the one that hits your bank account.