MML is a mine company with almost no debt on his balance sheet. This means that all investments they make on infrastructure and exploration has to be internally financed. You can see this back in both the balance sheet and the cashflow statement. Total assets keep climbing every year because of the net investments (depreciation and amortization are deducted). Net tangle assets per share is also climbing every year. I think it is already above $ 2,- and rising. In the cash low statement you can see that the level of cash and equivalent is also not very high, although it is improving bit by bit. Flip side of this is that while MML is investing in the mine and in exploration and is not taking on debt on her balance sheet, there is not enough room for paying a dividend. We have seen this for the last two years.
Also for the FY 15/16 MML is predicting an investment program of 40+10+10+11 = $ 71 mln for exploration and development (incl the service shaft). They have to finance this internally if they keep on taking no debt (which I like). They also expect a production of 120.000 - 130.000 OZ, say 125.000,-. With a POG of around $ 1200,- this means a turnover of $ 150 mln. for this year turnover will probably be around $ 120 mln. For the year 16/17 MML is predicting a production of around 140.000. this means a turnover of around $ 170 mln. with the same POG.
So in the coming 2 years there is more cash at hand in the company. With cash costs around the $ 425,- level the extra production will generate an extra $ 19 mln. in 15/16 and an extra $ 31 mln. in 16/17 in positive cash flows. The question is: will MML need all the money for investing in exploration and development. Perhaps some but not all the extra cash from the higher production will be needed. MML already has an increased investment-budget (it will be interesting though if Mr. Davis can elaborate on this issue in the upcoming shareholders meeting later in the year, because it is an important issue in the re-rating proces of MML) So in the next 2 years there is a reasonable chance that the level of cash and cash equivalent will keep climbing towards a level where management is comfortable to start paying some dividends again. In further years when production can rise to a 160.000 - 170.000 OZ per annum level my story above can be expanded by another year or so.
This story is about cash flows and the probable return of a dividend. It is not about calculating the next net profit or EPS but there is a positive relation between them. Higher positive net cash flows makes the company stronger and the company can grow towards a situation where not all the cash earned will be needed for investments. When this is reached the prospects for MML will be bright.
MML Price at posting:
84.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held