Originally posted by You3OAte
Had a chuckle at your opening line ura. It's the same used by a long time PEN bull. How ironic that he turned out to be WRONG! So wrong.
I'll draw the picture for you.
1) PEN's 2018-2020 planned sales composition has 332k lbs from Lance. This will be sold at current contact price, i.e. fixed and announced by PEN to be circa USD55/lb (although they have never seemingly published a sell price close to this marketing value). This internal production supplemented by 265,000 lbs purchased at fixed prices. So, both sell and purchase price fixed. No exposure to spot, whether rising or falling. Not strictly correct since the contract price algorithm has a spot price component to it but believe for this argument.
2) Nice straw man you built ura. I didn't say spot and contact pricing aren't linked - ever. Of course they are. Any contract has a spot component in it. Typically 40 to 60% escalated. My point was, and still is, PEN don't have direct exposure to spot appreciation until they can produce above the demands of their current sales contacts. The excess, they can sell on spot or long term contracts that have a spot component attached. PEN has zero chance of doing this before the LPHWD (announced by PEN and indeed critical to their survival in the interim), and, as is well explained by yours truly, has minimal chance of achieving this post LPHWD.
3) "Uncovered future production". Good one ura. At least you still have a sense of humor.
Looks like I over-cooked my PEN year end SP prediction. What's your guess?
Very disingenuous but that's the norm for You unfortunately.
You're repeating my assertions as though it doesn't contradict your original incorrect post.
Fact - A significant portion of the contracts is pulled from the ground. So it's not at a fixed buy price - it costs whatever it costs to produce... which will likely be a lot less once the new pH process ramps up.
Assuming the new process performs as the robust lab testing suggests it will - output will also increase. This leaves lots of uncovered production which will likely be sold under new contracts the price of which is as you admit linked to spot.
Your ramps are poor and you should feel bad. Once upon a time your technical analysis of the problems at PEN were insightful but now you're too consumed with bitterness to be objective.
(20min delay)
