To be frank, looking at the price action in the lead-up to last November’s AGM (heavy selling before confirmation of guidance) and to last August’s results (SP up five days in a row, before forward guidance far below expectations), I wouldn’t rush to any conclusions from the observation that there currently is “no buying”.
Talking of fundamentals, instead, and given that one of the biggest concerns appears to be the possible loss of Australian (federal and state) Government business to Meltwater, I have done a little search through the relevant websites, namely:
www.tenders.gov.au
www.tenders.nsw.gov.au
www.tenders.vic.gov.au
www.qld.gov.au/digitalprojectsdashboard/tenders
www.tenders.wa.gov.au
www.tenders.sa.gov.au
www.tendersonline.nt.gov.au
www.tenders.tas.gov.au
www.tenders.act.gov.au
and have found that, between June 30th 2018 and yesterday, contracts for a total revenue of 4.54m$ have been awarded to iSentia (4.01m$ from the federal government, the rest from VIC and WA) vis-a-vis merely 0.17m$ equivalent (from the federal government) to Meltwater.
This doesn’t of course include the big contract (9.0m$ over three years) that the NSW government awarded to Meltwater back in July.
Therefore, with that one exception (that has already been factored into their current earnings guidance), it would appear that ISD are still winning the quasi-totality of government-related media monitoring business in Australia.
IMHO & DYOR
