I think the correction after Jul-13 was partly due to uncertainty in Austin Chalk and downspacing pilot study results. That has now been resolved, but there is still the issue of free cashflow.
I'm further suggesting that the valuation provided by Ryder Scott is optimistic and that the reserves have lower value. So a further correction may be on the cards if AUT don't keep their promise of free cashflow by 2H 2014.
AUT are at risk from a falling oil price in this scenario
AUT Price at posting:
$2.66 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held