GEV (ASX) Reading Between the Lines

Originally posted by tukebay ↑

I have a theory developed over my years in the market: that usually when a company reports something, at least if that company is well managed (as I believe GEV to be); they already know a lot more than what has been reported to the market. I believe that this release from GEV meets that standard and there are enough clues to help anyone draw that conclusion.

The first of those clues is the final bullet point on the first page that is reprinted on page 2 of the report:
“…on an optional basis, the parties may agree and enter into discussions to acquire an interest in the other party’s project”.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this is more advanced than what is alluded to in the report. The experience of Clough in the engineering field would be of great benefit to GEV and GEV’s technology and gas expertise would be a great fit for Twinza.

What GEV has effectively attained with this deal is a no-cost option. The only way Twinza would’ve agreed to this is if they thought GEV had something compelling to add to the economics of Pasca A. And the hierarchy at Twinza well and truly have the ability and resources to intimately understand the Optimum technology and the economic benefit it would bring to the project. Similarly, getting into bed with Twinza would bring deep engineering expertise to GEV as well as potential access to Kerogen Capital, who could come in very handy down the track.

This has the potential to be a very significant deal for GEV in its own right as well as helping the company diversify away from Iran.

The best deals in life usually involve a win-win, and at least on face value, that would seem to be the situation assuming the HOA becomes a formal and more extensive agreement.

The announcement also flagged the possibility of multiple announcements from India about offtake agreements. The use of the word “bankable” explains why these discussions are taking longer than might have been expected. Dealing with investment grade, Tier 1 partners is never easy especially when you're a guppy negotiating with a whale.

We also have the potential of a gas supply for Port Meridian being mentioned.

In short, we have had 2 very strong reports this week with apparently more on the not-too-distant horizon.

In the meantime, we have a large seller sitting on the stock. I have taken some off his hands and am already thanking him in advance for the opportunity. Remember, a seller can only sell once.

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Tukesbay ,

Kerogen are predators and will likely want 100% of GEV .

It wouldn't surprise me if they are have been hoovering up GEV shares and somehow been managing to depress the price - or doing a deal to buy off market .

They have advanced AJ Lucas (ASX:AJL) ruinous loans and gained a stranglehold over there .

The Kerogen head honcho Ivor Orchard is a smart guy but getting into bed with Kerogen is a red flag for me .

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