How far away? - at the moment it would appear a long way away.
That said the UK sale comes through and a couple of other sales and sentiment could change dramatically. Im sitting on a 58% capital loss on a fairly significant investment (though not anything like the possible $40,000 you mention)
My real concern is Covarta is a small company and while they have a good product there are no doubt other companys selling similar software who may be getting more traction in the market for their product - I dont know. I have no doubt there are a myrid of small tech stocks with "best of breed" products who have not "made it" as they could not get traction in the market for their product.
TPG's shareholding does give me some comfort - however, If they suddenly decide to sell I think that would put a serious question over the company's future given the negative sentiment such a sale would generate.
To me the UK sale is critical - not only will it inject some much needed cashflow - a sale like that will definately put Covarta on the map not just for the market but also with potential customers around the world - Covata has technical recognition as evidenced by the recent award - all they need is some market presence which would be generated by a sale like that which is currently under consideration by the UK Government.