Haha I can't blame rt's healthy dose of skepticism here. I certainly have seen company representatives in the past (outside of FIG) coming here attempting to spruike or stoke the fire.
Some may not be at all surprised by the sustained loss of trust and confidence that appears to be reflected in the current share price, especially given the timing of FIG management previously selling down their substantial stakes and now 2nd tranche of escrow release, or perhaps fundies now moving on (some having made some decent returns in 12-18 month window). Note elevated trading volume than average since 19 Feb and consistent pressure on the sell side.
Regardless there's not much positive return to be made at this price (even for those entered pre-IPO or through IPO).
So where to from here?
Obviously there are also other uncertainties in the short term that are factored in the current price weakness, e.g.:
- H2 outlook and longer term sustainability of growth in question;
- Regulatory uncertainties, e.g. if FIG gets pinged by ASIC for any naughty sales practice or flawed product design;
- Possible cut-and-run from management
All that being said, the simple analogy I apply here is this:
You had the opportunity to buy a "piggy bank" back in Dec 16. You know that by nature, the "piggy bank" grows over time when everytime an insurance policy is sold and there is trailing commission for subsequent number of years, factoring in some assumptions around customer churn, premium vs payout etc. Fast-forward to now, you have seen the piggy bank grown and continuing to grow at around $20m per year based on insurance also sold in recent years as well as expected sales going in the future. And now you have the opportunity to buy this piggy bank at pretty much the same price.
Whilst some are looking to exit to pick up that new car/house/boat/jet, this could be opportunity for others to at least consider and potentially take advantage of, especially if share price continues to head south.
FIG Price at posting:
36.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held