Jrg, your hypothetical situation is well-constructed, and a...

Jrg, your hypothetical situation is well-constructed, and a model of clarity. If the real world followed that pattern, then we could, indeed, have observed outcomes which would permit both claims to be true. However, that does not appear to be the case. Over the last twelve months, in those instances where the bidding companies have been named in the press, ATS and Redflex have both featured, in a majority of reported bids.

The only caveat is that the cases where companies are named, while significant, is still a subset of the whole. So we are making the assumption that the pattern shown in this (quite substantial) sample is representative. The numbers are into double figures, which is probably large enough to make the extreme, constructed, hypothesis improbable.

Plain old-fashioned sales puffery is thus still a much more likely explanation of the figures.