Why would you wait?? You're only trapped if you have an unmarketable parcel. The pain of what you've already lost isn't going to be soothed by losing more.
I find this a valuable exercise to strip the "lost money" emotion out of the decision.
- Calculate the sale value of my holding, taking into account how many lines I would have to wipe to liquidate my position.
- Ask myself where I would put that amount of money if I had it available to invest right now.
- If the answer isn't YBR then I leave.
If you look at Yellow Brick Road as a
potential investor, what does it have to offer?
- Steady decline in price... nothing that says "oversold".
- Management that have failed to deliver every major milestone they've promised in the last three years.
- No change in management so downward trajectory is likely to continue.
- Significant shareholders have left the building.
- Fallout from the Haynes Royal Commission, which is bad news for a company that's not making money to start with.
- Challenges to business model following Haynes Royal Commission, more bad news on top of the previous point.
There is nothing here that would convince me that this is a "hidden gem" or an "undervalued opportunity". I reckon Mercantile feel that they dodged a bullet when the board wouldn't recommend the takeover. Mercantile were pretty quick to declare their offer "best and final" and effectively escape from the deal.
