Personnally, I cannot see the tollway meeting the 18 month traffic forecast of 100,284 vehicles made 3 years ago. The majority of the vehicle are cars (86%) which are expected to be charged a toll of $4.28 in 2010. That represents revenue per year after 18 months of $156.6M ( $4.28 x 100,284 x 365).
Given that the Captain Cook Bridge and the Story Bridge currently only average 238,910 crossings per day, I cannot see the RCY tunnel getting 1/3 of that total or less than 80,000 crossings per day, probably less unless the council changes the function of the traffic lights or something.
Initial Traffic Forecast as per Slide 19 of 20/09/06 Briefing Presentation:
TRAFFIC COUNTS - River Crossings: (as per Slide 8 of Chairman's Presentation)
.................................Mar-09* Captain Cook Bridge..............140,628 Gateway Motorway..................97,890 Story Bridge......................98,282 William Jolly Bridge..............41,944 Victoria Bridge...................15,406
Light Commercial Vehicle - load carrying vehicle with a gross vehicle mass greater than 1.5 tonnes, but not exceeding 4.5 tonnes...................... $6.42
Heavy Commercial Vehicle - all vehicles with a gross vehicle mass greater than 4.5 tonnes...... $11.34
Consequently, does the RBS Report give revised figures for the expected usages? Would be interested in:
(a) Number of crossings required to cover operating/ maintence expenses; (b) Number of crossings required to cover interest on debt; and (c) Number of crossings required to justify the outstanding Debt plus their valuation of 48 cents?
Do you have those details.
You are certainly picking the shares up at a significant discount to what the original holders paid for them. However, given the level of outstanding debt and operating expenditure, I am unsure the demand will be sufficiently high enough. Would be interested is seeingn the figures RBS used for their valuation purposes.
Thanks in advance.
SP
Regards
SP
RCY Price at posting:
17.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
