The profits from 300k oz per year at even $1000-$1100/pog is worth waiting for. The profits PIR will reap if POG heads back to higher levels will be very rewarding for shareholders in due course.
This isn't the kind of market to be expecting larger sized corporate deals ? You wouldn't think so , but the market has a way of surprising...
Randgold for instance is a multi-billion dollar company and would have access to substantial capital if needed imo.
The lucrative nature of PIR's Fekola shouldn't be underestimated , especially in terms of the attractiveness to Randgold and the like.
Just quickly and roughly , here's how Randgold "might" be thinking :
- Randgold's annaul production guidance for 2013 is 900k ounces (but this is in decline beyond 2013 i think)average cash cost $750/oz
- PIR's Fekola is shaping up as a 300k oz/yr operation, with average cash cost $750/oz also.
So effectively , Randgold can add ~33% to its production profile just by acquiring the Fekola asset (plus exploration upside ontop)
Randgolds market cap is around $6 billion(USD).
A deal for say around $500million for PIR would equate to around 8.4% of their current market cap. So they could increase their output by 33% for the cost of only 13.5% (including cappex costs) of the value their company . Sounds pretty good ? (yes , i know this is rough way to calculate value , but interesting all the same).
And all in their own back yard in Mali, so would Randgold even need to build a new mine ?
Fekola is only 30-40km's away or so - well withing trucking distance given the grades (you may lose about 0.2g/t in trucking costs ?)....so perhaps they could even fund the mine build at Fekola by trucking the ores to the Gounkoto mine for the first few years, creating a neutral cost/cash position for the mine build. Not sure about this, but interesting idea I thought...
Randgold finished last financial year with over $350million in bank, according to their annual report. So with a further $200mill credit facility , they are looking at a possible warchest of maybe around $500+ million at their disposal ?
PIR Price at posting:
71.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
