Hey Mck,
I also have found MOYs price action interesting, but not surprising when you look at how it has performed in the past. For reasons that I cannot pinpoint, it seems to lag the POG, yet has its own strong moves from time to time.
After watching for perhaps 2 years, I have grabbed what I could at $0.175 today, because while it may go a touch lower, its ripe for a big move with all the news that is to come in the following 3-6 months (but also in just the next 2 weeks).
For me, MOY ticks the boxes I need.
Management - have proven to be astute, open and to date, not made any major stuff ups. A rarity in this sector.
Plant - keeps being able to process a little more ore each year, a great outcome.
Grade - only going to keep increasing as they go U/G.
Reserves - low... but with the plant upgrade coming, everything is going to change.
Resources, it has surprised me how well their exploration campaigns have been, yet the stock finds it very difficult to gain solid traction to move a lot higher, but.... I think that is partly because this year has been a bit bumpy AISC and production rate wise.
Anyway, with the POG getting close to all time highs in AUD, I feel the best place to be is in unloved small/mid gold producers, that, will hopefully reap the benefits.
This quarter is going to be a cracker, with them hopefully hitting their 25k target, with the AISC coming in at $1150. Even with their hedge being a little low (approx 7900 ounces per quarter at $1687, the rest will likely have been sold at around $1700), they should have an average margin of $540 per ounce, giving them $13.5m. Take out exploration of $3m, with another $10m in development etc for U/G and plant upgrades, and they should still be sitting on around $17m, with a further $7m accessible via their debt facility. The March quarter will hopefully be similar numbers to this quarter, giving the company a wide margin of comfort as they commission the plant upgrade. 6 months ago I was much less optimistic the company would be where they are now, but all credit to them.
Add in the reserve upgrade/conversion and further drilling successes, plus the likely decision to add a second U/G development and the company really is transitioning from a small player, to one that is going to finally to be able to cement itself as an equal to its peers like SLR/DRM etc, but with a longer mine life etc.
The share price may well be played with a little over what is sometimes a quiet part of the year, but... I do feel the upside in MOY is hard to beat right now, with other stocks seeing decent moves due to the strengthening gold price. Famous last words of course!
MOY Price at posting:
17.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
