Quick Peer Comparison Going into 2019, page-2

First 2 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Heeman

3,888 Posts.

207

19/12/18

18:37

Post #: 36910525
Share

Originally posted by El Jefe ↑

A40 EV approx $370m @ 26c
PLS EV approx $1350m @68c
AJM EV approx $470m @16c

A40 expected to produce ~ 300ktpa
PLS expected to produce 330ktpa
AJM expected to produce 220ktpa

A40 expected to produce at $400-600 pt - should get Better guidance in Jan
PLS expected to produce at ~$416 pt
AJM expected to produce at ~$428 pt

A40 debt approx $30m including 15% prepay shipments
PLS debt approx $140m
AJM debt approx $185m including Ganfeng prepay

EVs and debt to best of my knowledge.
Please tell me if wrong, I think accurate.
All companies should be at full run rate by mid next year.

If these figures come to pass, A40 towards lower end of costs guidance and belief that increasing resource is a matter of when not IF then it’s the most compelling buy based on the above metrics at these levels imo. Not to mention Relatively low capex to double production should resources come good and demand/pricing remain robust.

Worth considering that Ganfeng May provide the most security as a partner but at the sacrificing of price received. Tricky one. AJM somewhere at $700-800, PLS could be similar.

PLS for now will continue to demand a premium due to size, solid offtake partners, downstream potential and better marketing.

Offtake risk needs to be considered (would like some diversity here as would the market), product quality, along with management performance to date. PLS easily has the best partners. AJM partners JRO in a world of hurt and Lionergy have been selling down AJM shares recent years too, along with never ending missed targets and huge debt it’s not a pretty picture. I was considering buying a bit of PLS at these levels but if you believe the developing story here which has been mainly ignored by the market apart from a few players, then it’s hard to look past A40. Higher risk compared to PLS but higher reward if it comes to fruition imo.

One way or the other all questions should be answered in 2019 by all theee players. YMMV

Expand

IMO customer diversity is coming for A40, as Burwill prob won’t be able to match any new offerings.

Will be just a question of what sort of deal can we negotiate for the 100ktpa or so from the fines/middlings production.

A40 Price at posting: 26.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
7 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

LPE

Sales growth pushes Lovisa's fortunes (and shares) upwards

GRL

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

WC8

Pan Asia rebranding to 'clear confusion' after bagging $35M for Chile projects

SIG

Dale Gillham's weekly wrap: Sigma-Chemist Warehouse merger creates pharma powerhouse

Week 47 Wrap: HotCopper users' most watched; Brent lifts on Putin's scary letter; RFK dents CSL

BTH

Bigtincan's Board backs Investcorp offer: Why a NASDAQ listing could be game-changing

DUI

Panic, paranoia, and gangland politics: HotCopper users react to Dubber's missing $26M

HotCopper Highlights: Your most watched stocks for Week 47, 2024

PYC

Scientific conference spotlights PYC's work on blindness disease treatment

MIN

MinRes's Ellison knows he screwed up – for that reason, hunt for new Chair to be sped up

There are more pages in this discussion • 31 more messages in this thread...

First 2 Last

Add A40 (ASX) to my watchlist

Quick Peer Comparison Going into 2019, page-2

Top Stories

Sales growth pushes Lovisa's fortunes (and shares) upwards

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

Pan Asia rebranding to 'clear confusion' after bagging $35M for Chile projects

Dale Gillham's weekly wrap: Sigma-Chemist Warehouse merger creates pharma powerhouse

Week 47 Wrap: HotCopper users' most watched; Brent lifts on Putin's scary letter; RFK dents CSL

Bigtincan's Board backs Investcorp offer: Why a NASDAQ listing could be game-changing

Panic, paranoia, and gangland politics: HotCopper users react to Dubber's missing $26M

HotCopper Highlights: Your most watched stocks for Week 47, 2024

Scientific conference spotlights PYC's work on blindness disease treatment

MinRes's Ellison knows he screwed up – for that reason, hunt for new Chair to be sped up