questions to be answered!, page-16

@jam321
Thanks for that , I appreciate the time you have taken to respond.

Something I can add to the mix is a discussion I had a few days ago with an investment manager - Not ALF if you are thinking. His comment was that at the moment there is a similar disconnect as was there in 2009 and seen recently as well.

His take: Whilst some big players have been routed the smaller and medium players have been devalued even more. His comment was that for example in Gold most players are down if not all but a small well run player has suffered even more than the larger. His view is that many of the companies we loved had a shake up from mid September and the energy sell-off has meant that some of the larger players have been heavily sold off - he thinks that this has led to some who would not normally buy STO suddenly perceiving value @ $7.00 per share and shifting from the medium players to STO. His comment is that VIX affects smaller companies more than larger as the money that exits leaves a vacuum and that is filled by those who want to remain invested rather than taking some off the table.

His analogy is then put to the funds that are value players - Often he believes value is in the second tier of investments but they have been hit hardest and you have to wait for a stable period for them to show fair value or for results to persuade the market on value. His view is when buying into funds that are value based or opportunities based you should expect a wilder ride. The bad decision is changing horses because you dont understand the individual fund cycle. There he thinks you are likely to amplify the bad decision because those peaking have to find new plays and often are not the top fund next quarter. There are however those that are consistently in the top 5 and his view is that is where you should be hunting.

I understood most but when I pushed about ALF I got the standard comment - Good team cannot look to rate them down on a bad 6 months wait another 6 months before doing anything. One thing was interesting - His comment - often the team learns the most during a bad run and what they learn will help get better returns later - unless some dynamic in the team has changed.

On this basis I will wait to relook this in September 2015.