STU 0.00% 94.0¢ stuart petroleum limited

Not a lot unexpected here, except for the Hughes farmin...

  1. 2,834 Posts.
    Not a lot unexpected here, except for the Hughes farmin deal.

    Production at 328 000 bbl for the full year, or 84 900 for the quarter.

    Worrior at 1500 bopd at the moment, with Acracia doing 23 000 for the quarter (note that although rain affected, Acracia aint doing 1000 bopd any more).

    Derrilyn looks like it'll do 1500 bopd in production, with about a mmbl of oil in there with STU having 35%.

    Harpoono looks like about 0.5mmbl, with Stuart having 2/3rds of that ... it's an Aldinga to hold and hug and call their own. They reckon it'll do 500 bopd on pump, but that got said about Sellicks and Christies as well.

    Regg Sprigg West looks nice, but no reserves estimates yet, with STU having 18.25% of it ... call it at 1mmbl, and thats another 200kbbl for STU.

    Next, STU bought in to Beeville block in PEL105 for 20% at 1:1, but only if they operate. Beeville-1 is about a mmbl ... 105 is owned by Hughes, who are a small Texas oiler. By getting STU to operate, they avoid needing to set up an Oz office, etc. Considering that the going rate in the Cooper is 2:1 and up, thats a nice deal for Tino and the boys.

    Finally, Arwon still looks Pretty Darn Nice, and will be drilled in August.

    OK, so this is my view of STU's reserves picture

    Worrior ; 70% of 3.4 mmbl = 2.5 mmbl
    Acracia ; 75% of 1.4 mmbl = 1.0 mmbl ... but I'll make a call here and drop that to 0.6 mmbl because of the water cut issue.
    Derrilyn ; 30% of 1 mmbl = 0.3 mmbl
    Harpoono ; 66% of 0.5 mmbl = 0.3 mmbl
    RSW ; 18% of 1 mmbl = 0.2 mmbl (my guess)

    Call it 3.9 mmbl.

    With 60m shares on issue, and 2P reserves worth A$15, then thats call it a buck a share in reserves, with exploration acreage worth nada nil nothin, and nothing for Arwon (which is next to Worrior, going back to the oil source along the migration path) or Worrior-2.

    Go buy some. If it's less than a buck in late August, I certainly will be doing so.

    Ian Whitchurch
 
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