I always enjoy reading different views and believe me I've given many on other stocks - GUN, DRX, BSE, DGX, PBD.
I do think you have a valid point about the share price possibly moving down, especially with us not knowing the exact issues. Now the quarterly wasn't at the level most expected, including myself. I'm sure management are not pleased with the commissioning level thus far and I would expect them to come out in the next four weeks with some sort of update for shareholders.
Now just with your post. I don't think that I've "underestimated" the issues involved with commissioning a plant. I have clearly outlined in many posts the issues I think could arise. Now, I have never given a price target and I did not give a quarterly production target as suggested, because I know that commissioning can be a long and drawn out process with many challenges.
As for my post from yesterday. I just tabled my ideas of a possible problem, but I'm not there, so it's just "miners guess" and I could be way off. A "basic mineral sand project" is fairly simple though. It's water spiral units combined with magnetic separation units with no chemicals. I know that's a very simplistic beakdown, but that's all it is.
How did I come up with this possible theory / issue? Well, a basic plant is normally extracting two to three minerals from a deposit that would not exceed 5%HM and would not encounter 100% concentrated area like they have at South Seven Devils (S7D). (A WA based deposit would be around 2.5%HM). Outetec the equipment provider have built many of these basic plants for clients like Iluka and TiWest.
Now the S7D is currently running at above 50%+ HM with 100%HM layers in some areas, much higher than the JORC (see presentation pics and my commentary). So while I understand your thoughts about them having a "serious misunderstanding" regarding the plant design, you must understand that this deposit is 25-30 times the grade of a normal deposit and considerably different to others they have like Shepphard and West Bohemia, so this is a unique plant design that must be capable of handling the variability between all the deposits including the unheard 100% grade. Combine that with it being a brand new plant, all new staff, the mining methodology being ironed out and technical issues being addressed, you have a commissioning timeframe that has expanded. The actual HM grade at this level would be so thick and compact, it would be like running vegemite through it, when you are expecting gravy. But let me say this, if they can get the vege back to gravy......look out.
Now you mentioned that you thought that some of HC comments under-estimated the problems that can occur during commissioning. My question is this: Why didn't you write that? It's an open forum and any feedback or questions are always welcomed.
Regards Pep
IDM Price at posting:
17.4¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held