quant cycles and probability map, page-4

Hi FactorX,

You know you can look at it as a cumulative value however these are designed more to map the individual probabilities of certain levels that are important mathematically rather than trying to attribute an aggregate probability.

The most important point in these levels are thsoe where the probability begins to drop very sharply in comparison to the previous levels.

There is definitely a downside bias in this stock as you can see the probability of price reaching zero from a macro view is comparably high when you look at ots probability of moving toward the range top circa 0.24.

These levels are dynamic however and need to be taken into accoutn against the quant risk model that I mapped and posted on Friday. The confluence of risk zones down in the area that I have suggested as a target zone to commence buying are providing me with the area, the probabilites give me the ability to scale into a position weighting heaviest just as the probability starts to fall quickly making success statistically more likely at that area. As we started the week around 0.055-.06c it is statistically very likely that this price will be traded more often than those further away. The calculations for this are a deal more complex but for easy of explanation if you can imagine two overlapping Sigma Bell curves you can understand that the central market risk line is the dip between the two bells from which price rises slightly to either side before tailing off rapidly as probability reduces much more quickly until we end up in highly improbably tail risk scenarios.

I am a bit under the pump at the moment however I will try and put together something that gives a bit more clarity on how to apply the two styles of analysis together and post it when I can.

Maybe a quick explanatory vid or something may be best.

Cheers.

D