Al, I think there is a big difference between 'wild optimism' and reasonable assumptions regarding what might happen going forward (with the usual caveat that noting is life is a guaranteed sure bet).
Firstly, the Kangwane BFS only covers around half of the resource so far delineated. There must be some prospects of mining a portion of the balance in due course.
Secondly, assuming the York deal is cemented, we gain access to both Kangwane North and South. Given the distances involved, there would have to be a reasonable change of trucking ROM anthracite to the K Central plant for processing (obviously, the economics of which would need to be proven).
Lastly, there is a good chance that they can do some incremental expansion of the CHPP for minimal additional cost. I also noted that if nameplate capacity is 200 tonnes per hour, then annual ROM capacity is actually well in excess of 1.2mtpa (after factoring in 400 hrs per annum of planned maintenance), so there would appear to be a significant buffer built into that 1.2mtpa figure for unscheduled breakdowns, weather related slowdowns, scheduling problems etc. The flip side of that is that if you are lucky and don't have any dramas, you potentially could exceed that 1.2mtpa figure.
HWK Price at posting:
4.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held