Q3 will fly, Q2 will be mild, page-67

Like CEOchair's post, i think other posters should carefully read what pac57 has posted here also. What pac57 means here is that we should find wet snow and a really long hill (the right industry and the right time), then pick our safest and best spot (the right stock), then just ignore the noises and roll down from there. (Sounds familiar?)

Compare toCEO’s method which is a mixture of trading and the conventional buy-and-hold, pac57’smethod has less hit-and-run and more buy-and-hold.  For myself, my style is more like CEO’sstyle, but I focus more on the fundamentals and less on the technicals (and Ican see that CEO has a better technical analysis skill than me).  My record, if you want to know, for the past10 years or more, my average compounded annual return on stocks is slightly above 15%.  Not a respectable return compare to many others’,I know.  But the past 10 years have notbeen all smooth, and you know that. 

Which method is harder to practice, the "Hit-and-run + Buy-and-hold", or the "Just buy-and-hold"?  In my experience, the second method looks easier but is actually much harder to practice. And, that's why many investors try to duplicate Warren Buffett's method and fail. One reason is that it's very hard for a normal being to ignore all the noises and fears, and keep holding while the herds are all begging you to flee.  It's our nature (and the nature of all creatures) to follow the herd and flee when we see dangers.  And, what adds to the complexity of this seemingly simple method is that fact that sometimes the herd is actually not over-reacted, they are actually right (at least for once in a long while). 

Butthe key is that whether you are using the first method or the second, eventuallyyou need to be able to buy, and then hold good companies, for a certain amountof time.  A bullish stock VS a bearishmarket (here, of course, I’m not talking about a real bear market!), who is thewinner eventually?  The bullish stock isthe winner !!  Forget about Amazon orMcDonalds, there is a very good example just in front of us – Cooper Energy.  Have a look at Cooper's price trend since Aug2018 untiltoday, you will see what I mean.  Still rememberthe scary sell-off in stocks and oils we had in late 2018?  And, what is Cooper’s price today amid loweroil prices and fears of recession?  Why even such a blood-curding market collapse couldn't bring down Cooper?  Doyou think Senex will be like Cooper in the next 6 months or so?  Cooper has the Sole project but what do Senex have?  

Yeah, pac57, I know that you have been accumulating and holding Senex for some time now.  Mind if I learn something from you? You are good at the buy and hold side, but how good are you at the sell side?  With your rather long-holding style, did you manage to sell on time during the past few bear markets? If yes, how? If no, how did you survive these bears with a handful of money-losing stocks?   Second, as opposed to many, you are a "all-in" guy, what gives the faith to go "all-in" on a company?  Don't you fear any unexpected events (like frauds) that could turn your ''all-in" into an "all-loss"?  No offence, really, but just for the sake of knowledge. 

Our forum friends, I hope we have all learnt from the experience on Senex today. If you have sold a company in which earnings are going to consistently grow in the close future yesterday or the day before at $0.30, you are going to have to buy it back at $0.335 today - a 10% higher price in just a few days.  If youcan’t resist following the herd or any scary news at all, you are not going to makemoney on stocks like pac57 and CEOChair. Looking at the volume relative to the % rise in price, I guess thatSenex’s price may fall a bit tomorrow?  Whatare you going to do, to sell again?  It’syour choice but I just hope we can all prosper together.  After all, Senex is just one of the stocks inmy portfolio and I don’t need anyone to support its price for me.  Neither do other posters, I guess!